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Good luck, Fiji! My prayers are for you!
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Tropical Cyclone MICK Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) | 
 | - Tropical Cyclone MICK Forecast/Advisory (JTWC)
- Tropical Cyclone MICK JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
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|  | WTPS31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 177.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 177.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 19.8S 179.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 21.9S 177.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 23.9S 174.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 26.0S 171.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 178.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (MICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NORTH- EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN EYE IS READILY APPARENT WITH DVORAKS FROM PGTW AT 4.0 INDICATING 65 KNOTS AS WELL. OBSERVATIONS AT NADI, CURRENTLY INDICATE 44 KNOTS WITH PRESSURES NEAR 980 MB. THIS SUPPORTS THE PRESENT INTENSITY OF TC 04P AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WITH FIJI. THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAS SEEN AN ACCELERATION AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 04P IS ENHANCING THE POLE- WARD OUTFLOW AND IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION THAT HAS OCCURRED. THE FORECAST KEEP INTENSITY AT 65 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE OF THE LLCC AS IT CROSSES FIJI IS EXPECTED, WITH A BRIEF REORGANIZATION UPON CROSSING. HOWEVER, THE TRACK SPEED WILL QUICKLY TAKE TC 04P INTO A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BEYOND TAU 12 INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL START TO CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS COMPLETE TRANSITION BY TAU 48, BUT THIS COULD OCCUR MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.// NNNN | | WTPS51 PGTW 140300 WARNING ATCP MIL 04P SWP 091214012548 2009121400 04P MICK 004 01 150 14 SATL 020 T000 175S 1777E 065 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD T012 198S 1797E 065 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD T024 219S 1778W 060 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD T036 239S 1746W 050 R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD T048 260S 1710W 040 AMP 036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 048HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 177.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 177.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 19.8S 179.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 21.9S 177.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 23.9S 174.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 26.0S 171.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 178.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (MICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NORTH- EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN EYE IS READILY APPARENT WITH DVORAKS FROM PGTW AT 4.0 INDICATING 65 KNOTS AS WELL. OBSERVATIONS AT NADI, CURRENTLY INDICATE 44 KNOTS WITH PRESSURES NEAR 980 MB. THIS SUPPORTS THE PRESENT INTENSITY OF TC 04P AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WITH FIJI. THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAS SEEN AN EXCELERATION AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 04P IS ENHANCING THE POLE- WARD OUTFLOW AND IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION THAT HAS OCCURRED. THE FORECAST KEEP INTENSITY AT 65 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE OF THE LLCC AS IT CROSSES FIJI IS EXPECTED, WITH A BRIEF REORGANIZATION UPON CROSSING. HOWEVER, THE TRACK SPEED WILL QUICKLY TAKE TC 04P INTO A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BEYOND TAU 12 INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL START TO CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS COMPLETE TRANSITION BY TAU 48, BUT THIS COULD OCCUR MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.// 0409120818 124S1635E 15 0409120900 122S1640E 15 0409120906 120S1644E 15 0409120912 121S1649E 15 0409120918 121S1653E 15 0409121000 121S1656E 15 0409121006 120S1661E 15 0409121012 114S1670E 15 0409121018 107S1683E 15 0409121100 101S1695E 15 0409121106 99S1708E 20 0409121112 106S1719E 25 0409121118 112S1729E 25 0409121200 118S1738E 30 0409121206 125S1747E 30 0409121212 130S1750E 35 0409121218 136S1753E 35 0409121300 143S1756E 45 0409121306 149S1759E 55 0409121306 149S1759E 55 0409121312 154S1761E 55 0409121312 154S1761E 55 0409121318 163S1770E 55 0409121318 163S1770E 55 0409121400 175S1777E 65 0409121400 175S1777E 65 NNNN | Satellite Imagery Satellite Animations |
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